HKTDC Export Confidence Index: 3Q25; Exporter optimism rises as global trade tension falls

HONG KONG, Sep 4, 2025 - (ACN Newswire)– The recent de-escalation in global trade tension has triggered an uptick in confidence among Hong Kong exporters. This was the key finding of the latest edition of the HKTDC Export Confidence Index – 3Q25 – which was released today.

Overall 2025 Export Growth Forecast for 2025 upwardly adjusted

This rise in confidence was underlined by the readings of two of theIndex’skey components – theCurrent Performance Indexand theExpectation Index. For its part, theCurrent Performance Index, a measure of how exporters viewed their business performance in the surveyed quarter, stood at 53.3 (up from 49.6). TheExpectation Index, a measure of how exporters see their likely prospects in the coming quarter, stood at 54.3 (up from 49.0).

This is the highest reading for the two metrics since the introduction of the upgradedHKTDC Export Confidence Indexin January 2024. The outcomes here were underpinned by the rally in Sales and New Orders, a development driven by the widely adopted trade front-loading strategy, and the rise in Trade Value (higher unit prices), which stemmed from the impact of the higher US tariffs.

Hong Kong’s exports recorded year-on-year growth of 12.7% in the first seven months of 2025, with the tactical front-loading of trade being the major contributory factor. As a result, theHKTDChas upwardly revised its overall Hong Kong Export Growth Forecast for 2025 from 3% to 7-9%.

Tariffs and front-loaded trade set to impact 2026 export figures

The Council, however, has been keen to put this revision into perspective and has cautioned against assuming this latest prediction will remain unaffected by the ongoing market uncertainties.

Addressing the uncertainties that lie ahead,Irina Fan, Director of HKTDC Research, said: “While it’s tempting to celebrate this forecast, it’s essential that we bear in mind that the better-than-expected export performance in the first seven months of the year was driven largely by the front-loading trade strategy, the benefits of which will recede over the coming months.

“As of August, the US imposed high tariffs on many of its major trading partners, including Japan, South Korea, the European Union and several key ASEAN bloc members. Beyond that, China-US trade talks are ongoing, with the deadline for any agreement now extended until November this year.

“With all of this in mind, we should be duly cautious and refrain from being overly optimistic. The possibility of future tariff hikes and further supply chain risks within the already increasingly fragmented global trading arena remains very real and could well translate into a sharp deceleration in trade in 2026.”

For the present, though, in terms of markets, Mainland China (62.4, up 9.5) and the ASEAN bloc (56.9, up 3.5) continue to be seen as hugely promising with regard to theirCurrent Performance, while export performance was reported as being elevated across the EU and in Japan. There are also signs that this is likely to continue in the near term, with theMarket Expectation Indexshowing that exporters remain optimistic as to their expansion prospects within many of their target markets, including Mainland China (60.5, up 7.9), the ASEAN bloc (60.5, up 0.6), the EU (55.0, up 4.3 points) and Japan (54.7, up 4.1 points).

Overall, it is only in the case of the US that confidence continued to falter, with readings for both its current and expected performance staying firmly below 40, an indication that considerable contraction is anticipated.

Rising / stable profit margins widely expected

On the industry sector front, theCurrent Performancereadings for Timepieces (54.9, up 2.8), Electronics (54.5, up 5.6), Clothing (51.2, up 2.3), and Jewellery (51.3, down 0.3 points) placed them all in expansionary territory. Toys (49.4, up 6.3 points) and Equipment/ Materials (45.8, down 4.6), however, remained in contractionary space.

A similar message could be derived from theExpectation Index, with Electronics (56.0, up 7.6), Timepieces (53.8, up 2.3), Clothing (51.9, up 4.6) and Jewellery (51.5, up 1.5) all firmly in the expansionary zone, and only the Toys (49.4, up 5.8) and Equipment / Materials (47.3, down 3.8) sectors seen as still liable to contract.

Reiterating the overall message of the most recent figures,Nicholas Fu, the HKTDC Research Senior Economist who oversaw the compilation of the Index, said: “From the 3Q25 readings, it is encouraging that the majority (64%) of survey respondents expected rising/stable profit margins despite the challenging trading environment.”

To view press releases in Chinese, please visithttp://mediaroom.hktdc.com/tc

References

- HKTDC Research website:https://research.hktdc.com/en/
- HKTDC Export Confidence Index 3Q25: Exporter optimism up as global trade tension declines [https://research.hktdc.com/en/article/MjEwMDQzNTA1Nw]

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TheHong Kong Trade Development Council (HKTDC)is a statutory body established in 1966 to promote, assist and develop Hong Kong's trade. With over 50officesglobally, including 13 in Mainland China, the HKTDC promotes Hong Kong as a two-way global investment and business hub. The HKTDC organisesinternational exhibitions,conferencesandbusiness missionsto create business opportunities for companies, particularly small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), in the mainland and international markets. The HKTDC also provides up-to-date market insights and product information viaresearch reportsanddigital news channels. For more information, please visit:www.hktdc.com/aboutus.

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